lunedì 18 aprile 2011

La valutazione delle small cap

Secondo il Wall Street Journal le small caps americane sono scambiate con una valutazione relativa alle large caps ai massimi storici dal 1980 ad oggi:
The Russell 2000 is trading at almost 18 times one-year forward forecast earnings, a record high, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That P/E ratio is about 1.3 times the P/E of the market's largest 200 companies as measured by Russell Indexes, according to Lori Calvasina, director of small-cap equity strategy at Credit Suisse, the highest since at least 1979, when her data begin.
The valuation gap has approached this level only twice before, in 1983 and 2007. After both instances, small-cap stocks vastly underperformed their larger brethren, Ms. Calvasina says. "We're on borrowed time," she says. "We are transitioning into a new phase of leadership in which large will outperform small."
The rally from the March 2009 bottom has seen the Russell 2000 rise 143%, topping the Dow's 89% gain and the S&P's 95% rise. And the Russell has continued its advance this year, rising 6.6%.(...)
Only about 11% of Russell 2000 stocks are trading at less than 10 times future earnings, according to Steven DeSanctis, head of U.S. small-cap strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who says he considers valuations "stretched.""There's not a lot of good value," he says. In just four months, the Russell small-cap index is approaching the gains that he forecast for the entireyear. Small-cap investors are increasingly downbeat. In a recent Credit Suisse survey of small-cap investors, 36% of 126 respondents said they expected large-cap stocks to lead the market over the next six to 12 months, compared with 31% for small- and midcap stocks, showing a rare lack of confidence in small caps, Ms. Calvasina says.

Probabilmente per investire in azioni a piccola capitalizzazione è il momento di fare molta attenzione ai fondamentali.  Joel Greenblatt, l'autore della "Formula Magica" ha rilasciato una lunga intervista a che continene diversi spunti interessanti.

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