giovedì 28 aprile 2011

Requiem for a dream? Bernanke, i giornalisti e il dollaro

Ieri Bernanke ha tenuto la prima storica conferenza stampa dopo la riunione del FOMC della Fed:
nel video qui sotto, tratto dal sito web del Wall Street Journal, lo potete vedere intento a rispondere
a un giornalista e a spiegare come la fine del secondo round di quantitative easing (QE2) dovrebbe avere un impatto limitato sui mercati mobiliari e a difenderne l'efficacia, messa in discussione da più parti.



Ancora dal WSJ: How much further can the dollar plummet? 
L'accostamento della foto di Bernanke ai grafici della discesa del biglietto verde non ha bisogno di commenti: la debolezza del dollaro è dovuta alla politica monetaria ultra-accomodante della Fed. La conferenza stampa di ieri sembra segnarne il requiem e la fine del QE2 non dovrebbe cambiare la situazione:


While the money printing is finally scheduled to end in June, the Fed still plans an extended period of low rates. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere are firmly in rate-raising mode, including the European Central Bank, which seems determined to burnish its inflation-busting credentials. A big yield differential between the U.S. and Europe could open up.
Another negative is international capital flows. U.S. investors have been stepping up purchases of foreign stocks, and foreign central-bank reserve managers are diversifying holdings. Central banks' purchases of foreign currency added $248 billion to reserves in the first quarter. But official flows into U.S. dollar assets are far limper compared with that, according to Nomura. China, in particular, has signaled support for the euro and euro-zone bonds.
There also is the risk of further dollar weakness if it starts to reflect fiscal concerns, as the euro did last year. Washington has shown little evidence of its ability to agree to a coherent plan to tame the runaway deficit.
The danger is chasing the dollar down this apparent one-way street. The biggest threat to the conventional wisdom is the potential for a dip in risk appetite. That might be sparked by the end of quantitative easing, or a more serious resurgence in the euro-zone debt crisis, particularly if it threatened Spain. A risk-off trade likely would cause a dollar spike on safe-haven flows and investors closing short-dollar bets.
But even that likely would be temporary. 

Dedicato alla crisi del dollaro e alla malinconica icona di Bernanke: il trailer di Requiem for a dream?  dal regista di  π - Il teorema del delirio (un cult movie per chi, come me, ama la matematica e i mercati finanziari)

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