venerdì 1 aprile 2011

L'Irlanda nazionalizza le banche: ma è davvero una notizia?

Dal Wall Street Journal di oggi:

In a bid to end a 30-month banking crisis that forced Ireland to accept a €67.5 billion international bailout package and contributed to the ousting of its government, Finance Minister Michael Noonan said Thursday that he will reorganize the sector around two heavily capitalized "pillar banks," Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks PLC. At least three other lenders will be shut down or merged into other banks, he said.
The government already has pumped €46.3 billion into its banks since 2009, meaning the tab could swell to €70 billion if the government has to foot the entire bill. That would represent more than €15,000 for each of Ireland's 4.5 million residents (e una percentuale che si colloca vicina al 50% del PIL !). Some of the new cost will ultimately be covered by the €67.5 billion bailout, but some funds may also come from either private investors or capital-raising actions by the banks.

L'origine delle dichiarazioni di ieri del ministro delle finanze irlandese è il risultato degli stress-test
secondo i quali  Allied Irish Banks, once Ireland's leading lender, needs €13.3 billion in additional capital. It will be merged with a struggling savings bank, EBS, which needs €1.5 billion in new capital. Bank of Ireland needs €5.2 billion. The tests didn't look at Anglo Irish Bank Corp., a commercial-property lender that already has received €29.3 billion in government funds. Anglo, which is in the process of being shut down, on Thursday reported that it lost €17.7 billion last year, on top of the €12.7 billion it lost in 2009.

Gli stress test irlandesi pare siano stati più rigorosi di quelli dell'U.E. e anche di quelli americani: una cura molto dolorosa ma considerata indispensabile per ottenere nuovamente un po' di fiducia dai mercati. Qui potete leggere come riporta la notizia il Financial Times di oggi.
Dall''altra parte dell'oceano le probabilità di successo sono considerate modeste, almeno a giudicare dalle conclusioni del commento di Simon Nixon:

The real story of Ireland's banking catastrophe is that the European Central Bank, via its own facilities and those provided by the Central Bank of Ireland itself, is now providing some €188 billion of liquidity to the Irish banking system, equivalent to 120% of GDP.
While individual bondholders seem to get away scot free, their debt hasn't disappeared, it has merely assumed a different form. Sooner or later, a default looks inevitable. The decision isn't whether to inflict losses on creditors, but simply to decide which asset classes to give a haircut to and when. Euro-zone authorities appear in no hurry to make that decision. Until they do, Ireland will remain in economic limbo.

Nessun commento: