lunedì 6 settembre 2010

Mamma non avere paura dell'Hindenburg Omen!

Mentre in Europa il mercato azionario è ancora percepito come una cosa da ricchi, o da scommettitori incalliti e divorati dal diavolo del gioco, negli Stati Uniti le cose stanno ben diversamente, poichè per la maggior parte delle famiglie americane è dai propri investimenti che ci si aspetta di costruire un capitale sufficiente per soddisfare le esigenze della famiglia,  come la pensione e
i costi esorbitanti dell'educazione dei figli (secondo l'Economist College fees have for decades risen faster than Americans’ ability to pay them. Median household income has grown by a factor of 6.5 in the past 40 years, but the cost of attending a state college has increased by a factor of 15 for in-state students and 24 for out-of-state students. The cost of attending a private college has increased by a factor of more than 13 (a year in the Ivy League will set you back $38,000, excluding bed and board). Academic inflation makes medical inflation look modest by comparison).

Così a nessun commentatore finanziario europeo verrebbe in mente di iniziare un articolo come ha fatto Charles Rotblut, vicepresidente dell'AAII, l'associazione americana degli investitori individuali: A bubble may be forming in bearish indicators. A sign of just how much attention pessimistic prognosticators are getting occurred last week when my mother asked me about the Hindenburg Omen. This is an arcane indicator that uses technical analysis criteria to try to predict a forthcoming market crash.

Like many forecasting tools, the accuracy of the Hindenburg Omen is questionable. Market timing is far more difficult than it seems. A combination of luck and historical trends can translate into one or two correct market calls and make a market timing system seem better than it actually is. This could be the case over the next few weeks if September lives up to its reputation. 

Il creatore dell'Omen è Jim Miekka, un signore cinquantenne del Maine, editore di una newsletter finanziaria, il Sudbury Bull & Bear Repor. Secondo il Wall Street Journal il sig. Miekka sostiene che the trio of Hindenburg Omen appearances this month (in agosto) doesn't bode well, especially since a cluster of occurrences tends to lead to more significant declines. He said it is possible the market could drop 20% from the first sighting two weeks ago.
"It's like a funnel cloud," Mr. Miekka says. "You don't get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we're seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar."
Mr. Miekka's foray into stocks began after he was injured while conducting experiments at a Massachusetts mine, where he was trying to find a better way to extract minerals from rock. There was an explosion from chemicals he was working with, and was blinded by complications during an ensuing eye operation. "The last thing I saw was the eye chart going into surgery," he said.
As he recuperated, Mr. Miekka said he began listening to television shows that focused on investing, and began actively putting his money into the market.
He came up with his first trading "system" in 1989. Now, he is working on a number of other indicators, such as a short-term five-day buy signal based on the trading patterns of two market averages over the past 25 days.
Mr. Miekka, who publishes the "Sudbury Bull & Bear Report," said his newest indicator has been "very effective." But he is keeping the indicator's name and the names of the averages to himself.

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