With an estimated 9.2 billion mouths to feed by 2050, up from 6.8 billion now, and growing demand from wealthier emerging-market consumers for a high-protein diet, the challenge of feeding the world looks daunting. In theory, that should provide a huge secular boost to agribusiness stocks over the coming years. But it will still require investors to have an appetite for risk.
Growing demand for food isn't in doubt. In 2008, there were already 915 million undernourished people around the globe, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. Prices for basic crops like maize, rice and wheat soared between 2006 and 2008, reaching their highest levels in 30 years and triggering riots in some countries. Prices have since fallen back as a result of the financial crisis, but the focus is firmly on food security.
Changes in diet in the developing world also will put pressure on agricultural production. If Chinese consumers were to match the diet of their Korean counterparts, global meat consumption would rise 9%, according to BlackRock, which is launching a new world agriculture fund.
The fund manager believes once such shifts in diet start, they prove irreversible, implying greater grain production to feed livestock, and greater use of technology to boost crop yields. At the same time, planned increases in biofuel production will reduce the amount of land available for food.
(...) While the Global Agribusiness fund run by DWS, Deutsche Asset Management's mutual fund arm, has returned 12.5% since its launch in September 2006 and handily beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and the MSCI World indexes, it has seen higher volatility. So far this year, agribusiness stocks are underperforming broader indices. But investment in agriculture is unlikely to be about reaping a quick harvest: over the longer term, the returns may look tastier.
Qui potete scaricare un corposo report sullo stesso argomento prodotto da Deutsche Bank un anno fa e qui il piano d'azione della World Bank per lo sviluppo del settore agricolo nel triennio 2010-2012.
Qui sotto trovate l'aggiornamento al 16 luglio 2010. Merita attenzione il sensibile ritracciamento del dollaro che ha perso questa settimana quasi il 3%. Segnali contrastanti dal mercato azionario U.S.A., decisamente negativa la seduta con cui ha chiuso la settimana venerdì. Qui trovate un'analisi approfondita dell'indice S&P500 da parte degli analisti di Goldman Sachs. Qui invece trovate un'analisi della situazione macroeconomica in Europa, aggiornata a giovedì scorso. La prossima settimana si chiuderà con la pubblicazione venerdì 23 dei risultati degli stress tests delle banche europee...staremo a vedere...
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