1) inflazione
2) una crisi finanziaria simile a quella del 2008
3) la svalutazione del dollaro.
Secondo Cuggino:
1) Deflation is as likely as inflation. While a nasty wave of stagflation was the result of the economic policies during the Carter administration, there's a decent argument to be made for a deflationary environment. Reducing the deflationary argument as succinctly as possible: In this economy even the rich are reluctant to buy much of anything. No demand = lower prices.
2) A full-blown financial crisis, or least one in which we're not reduced to rubble, is gradually getting priced into the market. We may, may, be reduced to buying things with the same currency used 3,000 years ago but even then silver, as a quasi-base metal, would likely go down as your gold appreciated.
3) Currency is relative. If the dollar rallies against the Euro, and it appears as if the dollar is trying to do just that, all commodities will be beaten senseless. There will be ample time to buy gold and silver then unless we one day wake up to a world where citizens are burning cash in a garbage can to keep warm and cook the rats that will be society's only sustenance.
All'asset allocation raccomandata da Cuggino Alfa o Beta? ha dedicato due post: nel primo ho discusso
i risultati in dollari dal 1972 al 2008
- Average Return 9.49%
- CAGR 9.22%
- Standard Dev 7.63%
- 25% dal fondo iShares S&P500, ticker IUSA.MI
- 25% dal fondo Lyxor ETF EuroMTS 15+Y, ticker EM15.MI
- 25% dall'ETFS Gold, ticker BULL.MI
- e 25% dal fondo di liquidità Lyxor ETF EURO CASH, ticker LEONIA.MI
Qui sotto potete vedere l'andamento del portafoglio dal 24 ottobre 2007 al 28 luglio 2011. Il rendimento complessivo è stato del 24,51%
Qui sotto invece potete ascoltare Michael Cuggino che spiega perchè è utile mantenere una quota del portafoglio investita in oro e argento.
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