Il rischio di una bolla nelle obbligazioni

Sono sempre più numerosi gli investitori pronti a scommettere su un rialzo dei tassi di interesse (dimenticando così il motto don't fight the Fed...). Secondo il WSJ with yields hovering around 2.65% on the 10-year and around 3.75% on the 30-year, some investors are again betting on a reversal. One area of activity: call options on an exchange-traded fund known as the TBT, which uses double-leverage to bet that the price of long-dated Treasurys will fall, and so their yields will rise.

Questo ETF non è armonizzato e in Italia l'unico ETF short con leva doppia è BUND2S.MI che ha come indice di riferimento il Bund future (la cui galoppata continua da oltre quattro mesi e pare inarrestabile).

A favore della tesi di una bolla nelle obbligazioni governative si sono espressi Jeremy Siegel e Jeremy Schwartz sul Wall Street Journal di oggi:  

secondo Siegel e Schwartz le valutazioni attuali delle obbligazioni non assicurano rendimenti ragionevoli in parte anche perchè we believe U.S. economic growth is likely to accelerate. 

Furthermore, economists generally agree that the most important determinant for long-term economic growth is productivity, not consumer demand. Despite the subpar productivity growth reported for the last quarter, the latest year-over-year productivity growth of 3.9% is almost twice the long-term average. For the first two quarters of this year productivity growth, at over 6%, was the highest since the 1960s. 

Se condividete l'ottimismo sulle prospettive future dell'economia U.S.A. non potete esimervi dal condividere le conclusioni: 

From our perspective, the safest bet for investors looking for income and inflation protection may not be bonds. Rather, stocks, particularly stocks paying high dividends, may offer investors a more attractive income and inflation protection than bonds over the coming decade.(...)
Today, the 10 largest dividend payers in the U.S. are AT&T, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon Communications, Phillip Morris International, Pfizer, General Electric and Merck. They sport an average dividend yield of 4%, approximately three percentage points above the current yield on 10-year TIPS and over one percentage point ahead of the yield on standard 10-year Treasury bonds. Their average price-earnings ratio, based on 2010 estimated earnings, is 11.7, versus 13 for the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, their earnings this year (a year that hardly could be considered booming economically) are projected to cover their dividend by more than 2 to 1.
Due to economic growth the dividends from stocks, in contrast with coupons from bonds, historically have increased more than the rate of inflation. The average dividend income from a portfolio of S&P 500 Index stocks grew at a rate of 5% per year since the index's inception in 1957, fully one percentage point ahead of inflation over the period. That growth rate includes the disastrous dividend reductions that occurred in 2009, the worst year for dividend cuts by far since the Great Depression.
Those who are now crowding into bonds and bond funds are courting disaster. The last time interest rates on Treasury bonds were as low as they are today was in 1955. The subsequent 10-year annual return to bonds was 1.9%, or just slightly above inflation, and the 30-year annual return was 4.6% per year, less than the rate of inflation.
Furthermore, the possibility of substantial capital losses on bonds looms large. If over the next year, 10-year interest rates, which are now 2.8%, rise to 3.15%, bondholders will suffer a capital loss equal to the current yield. If rates rise to 4% as they did last spring, the capital loss will be more than three times the current yield. Is there any doubt that interest rates will rise over the next two decades as the baby boomers retire and the enormous government entitlement programs kick into gear?
With future government finances so precarious, private asset accumulation and dividend income must become the major sources of retirement funding. At current interest rates, government bonds will not be the answer. One hundred times earnings was the tipping point for the tech market a decade ago. We believe that the same is now true for government bonds

Ma l'evidenza di una bolla nelle obbligazioni è così lampante secondo alcuni, che addirittura basta andare da McDonald per accorgersene! Non mi credete? Sentite qui: