venerdì 6 agosto 2010

Goldman vs. Morgan ovvero deflazione vs. (un po' di) inflazione.

Mr. Hatzius (di Goldman Sachs) is arguably Wall Street’s most prominent pessimist. He warns that the American economy is poised for a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year. That would send unemployment higher again and raise the risk of deflation. A rare occurrence, deflation can have a devastating effect on a struggling economy as prices and wages fall. He says he may be compelled to downgrade his already anemic growth predictions for the economy. 
For months, Mr. Berner (di Morgan Stanley) has been sticking to a more optimistic forecast, despite growing evidence in favor of Mr. Hatzius’s view. Last week, Mr. Berner was caught by surprise when the federal government reported that the economy grew at a 2..4 percent pace in the second quarter, well below the 3.8 percent he had forecast a month before. Mr. Hatzius came closer to hitting the mark, having projected a 2 percent growth rate. (...) On Wall Street, both men were among a very small group that accurately predicted the recent recession. Mr. Berner’s long résumé includes stints at the Federal Reserve in Washington and Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh. “I’ve seen plenty of ups and downs,” said Mr. Berner, 64, sitting in a corner office overlooking the Manhattan skyline at Morgan Stanley’s Midtown headquarters.
Showing not even a hint of doubt, Mr. Hatzius said, “The prospect of substantial inflation seems very remote, but the prospect for deflation is far from remote. A double dip is certainly possible but not likely.”
Mr. Berner does not expect substantial inflation, but he is predicting inflation will run 1 to 2 percent annually rather than the near-zero level Mr. Hatzius sees by the end of next year.
“There is still a one in 10 chance of deflation,” Mr. Berner calculates. “But we already have been much more aggressive and proactive in dealing with the problem than Japan was,” he said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to quickly cut rates and aggressively buy government securities.

Secondo l'ex-governatore della Fed Alan Greenspan l'economia USA ha subito una battuta d'arresto nel corso di una modesta ripresa, creando un clima percepito come una "quasi-recessione". Il timore di una double-dip recession potrebbe diventare realtà se i prezzi delle abitazioni riprendessero la discesa. 
In questo articolo del Wall Street Journal potete leggere come molti tra i più importanti investitori americani stiano riposizionando i loro portafogli preparandosi alla deflazione prossima ventura. Certamente l'economia U.S.A. fatica a riprendersi dopo la grande recessione del 2007-2008: i grafici qui accanto (tratti dal Wall Street Journal) aiutano a comprendere l'entità della recessione e la debolezza della ripresa confrontando l'andamento dell'occupazione e del prodotto interno lordo con le tre recessioni precedenti. Per quanto riguarda il balletto inflazione/deflazione un po'di aiuto inatteso potrebbe venire dai prodotti agricoli: il breakfast index dell'Economist (caffè, succo d'arancia e farina) ha subito un'aumento del 25% dall'inizio di giugno. Sempre secondo l'Economist The purchasing-managers index in the euro area, used to measure manufacturing activity, rose to 56.7 in July, up from 55.6 the previous month. The improvement was almost exclusively led by Germany and Italy. French activity growth was at its slowest in ten months, highlighting the asymmetry of the recovery within the 16-nation common-currency area.
Consumer spending and incomes in America were unexpectedly stagnant in June. Spending was flat, after a 0.1% rise in May, while personal income remained unchanged, having risen continuously since September.
Yields on American Treasury bonds reached record lows, amid concern that the country’s economic recovery was losing momentum. The dollar reached a three-month low against the euro and a 15-year low against the yen, though it stopped falling after news of private-sector jobs growth.

1 commento:

gg ha detto...

Mr. Hatzius non sbaglia un colpo... un tipo molto tosto