martedì 15 giugno 2010

Gold in the long run?

Quando si dice investire per il lungo credete a Raymond Kurzweil il vostro orizzonte temporale per gli investimenti raggiunge i 700 anni ...: “We will transcend all of the limitations of our biology,” says Raymond Kurzweil, the inventor and businessman who is the Singularity’s most ubiquitous spokesman and boasts that he intends to live for hundreds of years and resurrect the dead, including his own father. “That is what it means to be human — to extend who we are.” 

Se come me trovate questa prospettiva terrificante ma siete ugualmente preoccupati da un più modesto long run che si misura in un lustro o due anzichè in secoli e secoli potete unirvi alla qualificata schiera di investitori che proteggono il loro capitale dalla futura probabile monetizzazione del debito sovrano aggrappandosi all'oro: la compagnia comprende superstars come John Paulson e George Soros:
Daniel J. Arbess, who manages more than $2 billion in Perella Weinberg’s Xerion fund, is another new gold lover. A few years ago, he said, he would not have taken a second look at gold as an investment. But now Mr. Arbess, a Harvard Law graduate and a generally conservative investor, is very serious about gold.
Spiraling deficits in the United States, Japan and Britain are unsustainable, he said, and could eventually hurt confidence in what are called “fiat currencies” — paper money not backed by gold, including the United States dollar.
“Indebted countries may soon be forced to choose among three politically difficult alternatives: sharp cuts in expenditures, debt default or printing money to pay off debt,” he said, with the last option the most likely outcome. Gold, he said, is a logical hedge against this risk, because firing up the printing presses ignites inflation.
True believers note that gold has risen in each of the last nine years, and that while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is down 13 percent since 2001, gold is now worth nearly five times what it was then.
For all its newfound respectability, gold still manages to bring out the inner survivalist in its adherents. Gold bugs like Peter Schiff of the investment firm Euro Pacific Capital in Westport, Conn., envision a black market arising in the United States, with merchants refusing paper money and insisting on gold instead, while Mr. Hathaway, the gold fund manager, says the credit system has entered “the end game.”
“People probably still think I’m nuts,” Mr. Hathaway said. “But I’m not talking to myself in an isolation chamber anymore. We’ve got company now.”

1 commento:

Antonio ha detto...

Per il 'long run' e se siete ottimisti (o pessimisti) vi consiglio di incrociare i dati e gli occhi su questo

Secondo questi signori ci aspettano 6 anni di vacche magre (ma non erano 7?), la siccità, le cavallette, e poi immancabile l'angelo della morte che porterà il DJ a 1000 ... forse la pizza di fango sarà allora l'asset vincente !