Buffett, le agenzie di rating, la dis-Unione Europea

Breve elenco di letture suggerite:

• oggi Warren Buffett testimonia davanti alla commissione del Congresso USA che studia le cause della crisi finanziaria. Berkshire Hathaway è il maggiore azionista di Moody's e sarà interessante vedere in che misura la testimonianza di Buffett riuscirà a sfuggire alle accuse relative all'ovvio conflitto di interessi. Il tema sul tavolo è se liberalizzare opppure no il mercato delle agenzie di rating. Ne parla in questo articolo il Wall Street Journal che attribuisce a Bill Gross questa non propriamente diplomatica citazione: Bond-fund king William Gross of PIMCO recently wrote to investors that the raters' credit models call to mind "an idiot savant with a full command of the mathematics, but no idea of how to apply them." He added that the agencies "no longer serve a valid purpose for investment companies free of regulatory mandates" and urged investors to dismiss their judgments.
•  Un'idea per il carry trade fai-da-te (attenzione però alla doppia tassazione dei dividendi)
• Aiuto! Ci siamo...dopo la Grecia la speculazione ha l'Italia nel mirino!
• La dis-Unione Europea attira l'attenzione alla riunione dei ministri delle finanze del G20
• Le obbligazioni decennali del Tesoro USA rendono poco più del 3%. Alla fine del 2008 avevno toccato il 2% ma due mesi fa il rendimento era salito al 4%. Ecco il panorama delle previsioni degli analisti secondo il Wall Street Journal:
  Jefferies now has the highest 10-year yield forecast among primary dealers, supplanting Morgan Stanley, which on May 10 slashed its outlook from 5.5% to 4.5%, citing the European crisis and the likelihood of the Fed keeping short-term rates lower for longer.
  RBS Securities Inc., is likely to cut its rate outlook from 4.4% when its forecast committee meets later this month, said RBS Treasury strategist William O'Donnell.
  "It's going to change, and it's likely to be lower," said Mr. O'Donnell, who suggested he would lobby for a significantly lower forecast. "We're about to face fiscal austerity, a threat to growth and for further disinflation, which should support Treasury prices."
  
  
  
  HSBC Securities, which has long had the lowest forecast among primary dealers for Treasury yields, has kept its year-end 10-year note forecast at 3%. Goldman Sachs has held firm to its second-lowest year-end forecast of 3.25%. Cantor Fitzgerald, which in late March expected the 10-year note to end the year at 4.15%, was the only primary dealer unavailable for comment.
  Economists and analysts, meanwhile, generally think yields will eventually end the year higher, even as they have lowered their forecasts.
  "I think we have a sustainable expansion in the U.S., and inflation, though it will remain quite low, is not going to slip into Japan-style deflation," said Mr. Pandl of Nomura. "The inflation outlook is really the biggest point of uncertainty—if you're going to get lower yields, it means you're going to have some deflation scenario for the economy as a whole."
  The risks for Treasury bond bulls include economic growth that is stronger than expected and a cooling of the European debt problems that have driven investors into Treasurys. These would help remind investors that the Treasury Department is still borrowing heavily, a situation that could bring higher yields, as it did in Europe
• A proposito di inflazione negli USA e della capacità di debito del Tesoro USA: i TIPS decennali hanno un rendimento appena sopra l'1% (!)