Il contagio da Atene a Parigi passando per Madrid

L'ultimo commento settimanale di John Mauldin non lascia molto spazio all'ottimismo sugli sbocchi dell'eurocrisi: secondo l'analista americano Spanish banks will require an estimated 100 billion-250 billion euros in recapitalization

later this year to reach this capital ratio target – a significant percentage of which will have to be

shouldered by Madrid. (source: Stratfor) con un innalzamento del rapporto debito/GDP del 25% solo nel 2012. Aggiungendo le garanzie implicite nei vari fondi creati per il bailout della Grecia e il sostegno di Irlanda e Portogallo il rapporto debito/GDP spagnolo raddoppia: As near as I can tell, Spain is guaranteeing about $20 billion of the new IMF funds that will be used for a European bailout. Spain already has $332 billion of liabilities to the ECB, $125 billion to the stabilization fund, another $99 billion for something called the Macro Financial Asset Fund, and various guarantees for other bank and European funds, all of which totals over $600 billion, give or take. Their public debt-to-GDP ratio is only 69%, but add in these other guarantees and commitments and you get over 130% debt-to-GDP. And that is before they start bailing out their banks, and before any additional debt from their fiscal deficit, which is running at 8%.

La situazione della Francia, quando si tiene conto degli impegni presi, non è molto migliore: France’s acknowledged, official debt to-GDP is 86%; but when you include their various commitments to the ECB, the ESFS, ESM, EIB, etc., the number rises to about 146%. Not all of that requires France to make the interest payments, but just to cover any losses in case of a default. But that 86% number is rising rather rapidly. Ed è un paese che non pareggia il bilancio dal 1974 (vedi sopra) e le banche, anche se in condizioni migliori di quelle spagnole, hanno un peso molto forte sull'economia, e un'esposizione ai PIIGS non trascurabile: A default by Spain would push them (and a lot of other European banks) over the edge. Which is one reason that Sarkozy was so loudly insistent that any bank problems should be treated as a European problem and not the problem of the host country. (Interesting idea if you are Irish!) France simply cannot afford to deal with any problems in its banks while it is running such large deficits. And not while it is guaranteeing all sorts of European debt, which is at the heart of the problem. Germany needs France to help shoulder the financial burdens of Europe. And as long as France can keep its AAA rating, Germany has a partner. But if France loses that rating, then any European debt it guarantees clearly loses that rating as well. (e i mercati da tempo hanno tolto la AAA alla Francia, almeno se si guarda alla dinamica dei CDS e dello spread OTA-Bund, più dettagli sulla questione in un post nel futuro prossimo, ispirato da un articoletto sul quale sto lavorando insieme a un paio di colleghi).

S&P has already taken France down one notch to AA+ and still has a negative outlook. Moody’s has warned of a possible downgrade to France. Italy now has a BBB+ rating, just below that of Spain. When you look at the actual balance sheet and total debt, France is not all that far from further downgrades, unless it embraces a new budget ethic, which is precisely what Hollande has said he will not do.

That would be a real crisis for the eurozone. German voters might not be willing to  shoulder the European burden without a full partner in France. And if France had to guarantee a great deal more pan-European debt, while it continued to run deficits and, God forbid, had a crisis in one or more of its banks, it would be putting its credit rating at risk.

Comunque voi la pensiate, mi sembra difficile non trovarsi d'accordo con le conclusioni di Mauldin: la Grecia uscirà dall'euro, forse accompagnata dal Portogallo, chissà cosa accadrà all'Irlanda ma la Spagna, beh è un po' diverso... Spain is too big to save and too big to fail. The only way for Spanish debt to remain at 6% is for the ECB to basically buy it (or lend to Spanish banks so they can buy it, or whatever creative new program Draghi and team can think up). When Spain goes, it is just a matter of time before we lose Italy and then, yes, even France. The line must be drawn with Spain. And the only outfit with a balance sheet big enough that can also do it in a politically acceptable manner is the ECB, and the only way they can do it is with a printing press.

Ora c'è solo da sperare che non ci si mettano le banche americane (e magari anche tedesche o inglesi) con le loro operazioni di trading - scusate intendevo dire hedging, naturalmente - a rendere le cose ancora peggiori...