Il 70-80% delle banche europee è insolvente?

Questa almeno è l'opinione di John Mauldin: in questo video ne ha per tutti, a cominciare dal governo U.S.A. che dovrebbe tagliare 10000 miliardi di dollari in 10 anni, anzichè i 2400 previsti dall'accordo sul debt ceiling.

Comunque non è finita qui: secondo il guru americano se - come sembra ormai probabile - gli USA subiranno una seconda recessione, il mercato azionario potrebbe perdere ancora il 40%

Ok: non posso finire questo post con tutto questo pessimismo. Ieri Minyanville osservava che storicamente quando l'indice Dow Jones è sceso per otto sedute consecutive (beh, se si dimentica l'infinitesimo rimbalzo di eri e si tiene conto di quello che sta succedendo oggi, nove...) il mercato è avanzato nelle settimane successive:

Since May 26, 1896, (the start of the data) the Dow has been down eight days in a row 43 times. However, these 43 times have been in 25 different groups. For example, in January 1968, the Dow was down 12 days in a row. This would be classified as five of the 43 instances but only one group. Let’s focus on the 25 groups so we don’t get too repetitive.

Of the 25 different groups, the Dow rallied by at least 6.2% in 21 of the cases. However, four times it did not. Let’s focus on those right away:

• 1912: The Dow saw a 3.8% bounce over the next 29 days.
• 1931: (April) The Dow went up 2% over the next eight days.
• 1966: The Dow went up 1.1% in about six weeks.
• 1977: The Dow went up 3.2% in about 2.5 weeks.

The above instances are the “worst case” scenarios. All experienced at least a 1.1% rally and all rallies lasted at least eight days. After the tepid rally attempts, stocks then proceeded to decline rather substantially.

There were three other times where the Dow rallied more than 6.2% but not quite 10%. These rallies lasted from two to four months.

Those proficient at math may deduce the other 18 of the 25 groups saw a double-digit rally in the Dow. Many of these rallies were quite dramatic and near major inflection points. For example, the signal in August 1982 kicked off the great secular bull market in stocks. While the September 21, 2001, signal did not herald a new bull market, it was the day of the exact low before a 35% bear market rally which lasted five and a half months.

So this indicator in isolation is suggesting a 16% probability of a very weak bounce, a 12% probability of a respectable 6-9% bounce for two to four months and a 72% chance of a double-digit move. This indicator isn’t particularly helpful in determining the strength or duration of the bounce. However, the indicator does suggest that there will be a better exit point in the intermediate future where you will be able to get out of your stocks if you are becoming increasingly concerned about a possible recession.

Ancora una volta una raccomandazione (scontata) di prudenza: quando si pretende di calcolare delle probabilità da campioni così limitati si prendono facilmente delle grossissime cantonate!