Un'altra opinione (troppo ?) ottimista sulle azioni USA mentre il vecchio continente è da buttare?

Dal Wall Street Journal: Bob Doll, strategist per il mercato azionario USA a BlackRock, vede un futuro roseo per le azioni americane. La tesi fondamentale di Doll è che

(...) compared to the rest of the world the U.S. is in reasonably good shape. Our economic fundamentals are sound: Manufacturing levels are up and interest rates and inflation are low. The broader economy's recovery is also finally translating into meaningful employment improvements—recent employment reports show increases in average hourly earnings and hours worked—and I believe this trend will continue. 
The recovery that took root last summer with the help of government stimulus now seems to be evolving into a self-sustaining expansion. In the first quarter of 2010, nominal GDP reached an all-time high. Real GDP will reach a new high either late in the second quarter or early in the third.
Compared with historic trends, these developments are extraordinary. Following the Great Depression, the U.S. took 15 years to return to its previous GDP level. Japan's growth took nearly as long to recover following its "lost decade" of the 1990s. But in just a few quarters, our economy has taken monumental steps toward health.
Now consider Europe, grappling with significant sovereign debt and deflation, and an inflexible currency system straining its governments. In Japan, economic recovery is evident, but the pace is much slower. Deflation and a declining population remain real concerns, a strong yen has slowed exports, and the banking system is pressured.
(...)
What about emerging markets? The largest of the emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have advanced their global GDP share to 15% from 7% since 1995. But their relative economic expansion has come at the expense of Europe and Japan—not the U.S. Fifteen years ago, the U.S. accounted for 25% of global GDP. Today? Still 25%.
(...)
Corporate profits could reach a new record high in this year's third quarter. Free cash flow for nonfinancial American companies is also exceptionally high—cash on the balance sheet is close to 11% of assets, a 60-year high. And high cash levels are already generating dividend increases, share buybacks, capital investments and M&A activity—all extremely shareholder friendly.
The importance of improving America's productivity growth can't be overstated. High productivity tends to lower unit labor costs and boost corporate profits.
According to Citigroup, U.S. unit labor costs are dropping at their fastest pace in 40 years. We last saw a similar surge in U.S. productivity in the late 1990s. Then, U.S. corporations were heavily investing in their own businesses, and foreign investors were increasing their U.S. allocations. This sparked a rise in the dollar. Improving productivity, a strengthening currency, and rising equity markets are linked. We saw that synchronization 15 years ago, and we are seeing it today.
(...) The bottom line is that the U.S. has generally performed better on the upside this year and held its ground better on the downside.
The relative strength of U.S. stocks is no accident. Since the credit crisis struck, we have taken quicker action and demonstrated greater innovation than our competitors.
Potential risks—trade complications, escalating credit contagion, overly aggressive financial regulation, and tax increases—clearly remain. But for the moment, our nation seems poised to remain a City Upon a Hill.

La percezione di un'Europa confusa e inconcludente è molto forte negli USA: eccovi altri due assaggi dal Wall Street Journal di oggi:

•  il piano di salvataggio dell'eurozona non ha garanzie: Is the euro zone's €440 billion ($524 billion) new funding facility more than a very large mirror and an industrial quantity of smoke?It is hard to avoid the suspicion that if the special purpose vehicle (SPV) is truly needed, implying markets have refused to fund several euro-zone countries, it won't work as planned. One fear is over demand for the SPV's bonds.
  (...) Ultimately, the only surefire solution to a major funding crisis may be a common euro-zone bond backed by federal taxation. The SPV proposal is a step in that direction. Completing the journey requires a sacrifice of sovereignty few, if any, are willing to make. For now, austerity to avoid being forced to use the SPV seems the more likely outcome.
  

• la nebbia della BCE:  So what do investors want? More information as to how much the central bank will spend on a controversial government-debt-purchase program, the widening chasm between the ECB and Germany's Bundesbank, and the ECB's views on the euro's steep slide.They aren't alone in thirsting for clarity. Financial-market fears have driven overnight deposits at the ECB to records, showing banks figure it is better to accept a paltry 0.25% interest rate than lend to other banks.
  

Meglio le azioni delle obbligazioni? Fino a quando?

Secondo il leggendario Bill Gross di Pimco le azioni hanno ancora un po' di fiato e potrebbero riservare piacevoli sorprese, almeno fino all'estate



I mercati sono effficienti? Anche quelli emergenti? Secondo Burton Malkiel, intervistato dal Financial Times, assolutamente sì e raccomanda di investire passivamente in un indice azionario mondiale. Ecco gli ETF disponibili a Piazza Affari

Db X-Trackers Msci World Trn Index Etf 

Ishares Msci World

Lyxor Etf Msci World

Se pensate che i mercati siano sì efficienti ma non del tutto potete anche prendere in considerazione etf che replicano indici fondamentali, in cui il peso di ogni società non è semplicemente determinato dalla capitalizzazione ma anche dai profitti, dai dividendi, ecc. Eccone un esempio    

    Powershares Ftse Rafi Developed 1000

Investire nei mercati emergenti, la riforma finanziaria e come essere un top blogger.

Investire nei mercati emergenti per ridurre il rischio? Ecco un video del Wall Street Journal sull'argomento:




Attenti però che secondo alcuni c'è il rischio di una bolla, per esempio nell'immobiliare in Cina. Se n'era occupato anche l'Economist un paio di mesi fa in un'analisi comparativa della Cina di oggi con il Giappone della bolla immobiliare degli anni Ottanta concludendo che la situazione è molto diversa e tale da non giustificare allarmismi:

a close inspection of pessimists’ three main concerns—overvalued asset prices, overinvestment and excessive bank lending—suggests that China’s economy is more robust than they think. Start with asset markets. Chinese share prices are nowhere near as giddy as Japan’s were in the late 1980s. In 1989 Tokyo’s stockmarket had a price-earnings ratio of almost 70; today’s figure for Shanghai A shares is 28, well below its long-run average of 37. Granted, prices jumped by 80% last year, but markets in other large emerging economies went up even more: Brazil, India and Russia rose by an average of 120% in dollar terms. And Chinese profits have rebounded faster than those elsewhere. In the three months to November, industrial profits were 70% higher than a year before.

China’s property market is certainly hot. Prices of new apartments in Beijing and Shanghai leapt by 50-60% during 2009. Some lavish projects have much in common with those in Dubai—notably “The World”, a luxury development in Tianjin, 120km (75 miles) from Beijing, in which homes will be arranged as a map of the world, along with the world’s biggest indoor ski slope and a seven-star hotel.

Average home prices nationally, however, cannot yet be called a bubble. On January 14th the National Development and Reform Commission reported that average prices in 70 cities had climbed by 8% in the year to December, the fastest pace for 18 months; other measures suggest a bigger rise. But this followed a fall in prices in 2008. By most measures average prices have fallen relative to incomes in the past decade (see chart 1).

The most cited evidence of a bubble—and hence of impending collapse—is the ratio of average home prices to average annual household incomes. This is almost ten in China; in most developed economies it is only four or five. However, Tao Wang, an economist at UBS, argues that this rich-world yardstick is misleading. Chinese homebuyers do not have average incomes but come largely from the richest 20-30% of the urban population. Using this group’s average income, the ratio falls to rich-world levels. In Japan the price-income ratio hit 18 in 1990, obliging some buyers to take out 100-year mortgages.

Potrebbe nascere negli USA il National Institute of Finance, con il compito di cane da guardia contro i rischi di collasso del sistema finanziario...

The proposed agency, which has sometimes been referred to as the National Institute of Finance, is intended to give federal regulators daily updates on the stability of individual firms as well as that of their trading partners, including hedge funds.

By standardizing financial instruments and reporting mechanisms, the agency would give regulators a broader view of the health of participants in the financial markets and the potential for problems to spread. The idea’s supporters say that kind of information was lacking in recent years as the housing bubble burst and troubles spread from firm to firm. (...)

The agency would gather data from the largest firms and from a broad set of market participants, including all United States-based financial institutions, which would be required to report all their financial transactions, regardless of whether the counterparty was based here or abroad. The agency would take steps to safeguard proprietary trading information, while also shining a light onto the so-called shadow banking system of mortgage brokers, subprime lenders and unregulated hedge funds that contributed to the financial crisis.

The financial reform bill approved last year by the House would create a systemic risk council that would collect similar data without establishing an independent agency, a difference that will have to be resolved before a bill is sent to the president.

...anche se la rottura tra Democratici e Repubblicani sul tema della riforma finanziaria mi fa pensare che le cose andranno per le lunghe. Tra i più accesi sostenitori delle riforme c'è Gary G. Gensler, ex di Goldman Sachs che propone di 

... forcing the big banks that sell derivatives to conduct their trades in the open on public exchanges and clear them through central clearinghouses, so that any investor can see the prices that dealers charge their customers. Today, those transactions are bilateral and private.

The banks and their customers might have to post collateral or guarantees to prevent the kinds of panics seen during the financial crisis, in which some investors worried that trading partners might have trouble keeping their side of the contract.

In this way, the clearinghouses would work as circuit breakers in the great web of derivatives trading encircling the globe. Shifting the products, and the risk of default, off the books of the banks and onto these middlemen would ensure that no single bank was too interconnected to fail, the rationale goes.

Anche Goldman Sachs sembra essere d'accordo mentre alcune compagnie non finanziarie, che usano i derivati per la gestione del rischio (e basta?) sono preoccupate di dover sostenere dei costi aggiuntivi: 

Goldman also does not oppose a clearinghouse for trades, he said.

“We’re in favor of central clearing for derivatives,” he said. “We also think that all derivatives that can be traded on an exchange should be, but we don’t think it is a good idea to insist that derivatives can only be traded if they’re on an exchange.”

Some big nonfinancial companies that use the derivatives for hedging are fighting the reforms for their own reasons.

Organizations including the United States Chambers of Commerce have formed the Coalition of Derivatives End-Users, representing about 170 companies including Coca-Cola, Caterpillar and General Electric. The group argues that the changes could make derivatives too expensive for them to use — or tie up capital they should be putting to work in their businesses.

“The question is how much is legitimate hedging by corporations” as opposed to speculative trading, said Don M. Chance, a finance professor at Louisiana State University. “You have to be careful you don’t punish companies that want to use swaps in a productive, safe manner.”

Divertente post di Mebane Faber su come diventare un blogger importante: mi era sfuggito e ve lo segnalo. Il giorno che alfa o beta? raggiungerà il modesto obiettivo delle mille visite mensili organizziamo una festa (virtuale?)...