martedì 4 maggio 2010

La valutazione dell'S&P500 e i miracolosi consumatori USA.

I costi del bailout della Grecia sono destinati ad andare ben oltre i 110 miliardi di euro previsti
dal FMI e dai paesi dell'eurozona. Secondo il Wall Street Journal The bailout announced here over the weekend will solve one pressing problem: Greece will have enough cash to repay an €8.5 billion bond that comes due in two weeks. But the bailout package is based on assumptions that by the end of 2011 Greece will be able to borrow again from capital markets. That may be optimistic, say some bond-market specialists.
(...) Counting the continued rolling-over of short-term debt, Goldman Sachs economist Erik Nielsen estimates Greece's needs at about €150 billion over three years. The sum of €110 billion has "taken the market out of the equation for at least 12 months," he says, but not three years.

Intanto ieri la borsa ha festeggiato il bailout e i merger. Ma le azioni sono care o a buon mercato?

Che mondo sarebbe senza il consumatore USA: è merito suo se l'economia continua la sua ripresa: scrive il NYTimes

After dragging their heels for many months, consumers were at last a major contributor to economic growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, a big gain from the 1.6 percent rate of the previous three months. Purchases of durable goods like cars led the way.
Whether Americans might retrench for the long haul after seeing their homes lose value has been one of the biggest questions about the aftermath of the Great Recession. Consumer spending makes up more than 70 percent of the economy, and it usually drives growth during economic recoveries.
Economists are hopeful that families will continue to pick up the pace of purchasing and make the recovery more sustainable, although consumers may remain cautious about spending given the tepid growth in job creation and personal income. Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in April, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index released on Friday.
“We haven’t had consumer spending growth this strong in three years,” said Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight. “But the caveat is that with real disposable incomes not growing, this was all done through the saving rate. We cannot rely on consumers continually driving down their savings. They need income support from hiring.” 

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