La Cina, l'oro, il dollaro e le banche che falliscono. Aggiornamento al 9 ottobre 2009

L'Economist si interroga se la prossima bolla scoppierà in Cina: il rapporto P/E delle azioni cinesi si aggira intorno a 24, al di sotto della media storica e un valore relativamente sostenibile visto il tasso di crescita degli utili.

But even if immediate worries about a bubble are overdone, there are medium-term risks. Ample liquidity, low inflation and strong growth are the perfect ingredients for sustained asset-price inflation. And China lacks one essential anti-bubble instrument: the ability to raise interest rates.

To support its exporters China has kept the yuan stable against the dollar over the past year, in effect tying China’s monetary conditions to America’s. So far that has mattered little. Domestic deflation means China’s real interest rates are the highest of any big economy. But this monetary coupling will become increasingly dangerous. America’s weak economy means its monetary conditions are likely to stay ultra-loose for far longer than makes sense for China. Left in place too long, the currency alignment could swell an asset bubble.

Just as the rebalancing of China’s economy calls for a stronger yuan, so the ability to avert bubbles requires a more flexible one. The transition will not be easy. The spectre of a stronger yuan will, temporarily at least, worsen China’s asset-price bubbliness, as foreign capital floods into the country in anticipation of a stronger currency. But this argues for acting quickly and carefully, rather than doing nothing. The longer China shadows the dollar, the bigger the distortions and the risks from any currency adjustment. Without an independent monetary policy China will eventually become a bubble economy. To avoid that fate, Beijing must let go of the yuan

Mentre potrebbe avvicinarsi l'ora dello yuan, il dollaro continua a indebolirsi (anche perchè circolano voci sulla fuga degli sceicchi dal dollaro) e l'oro supera i massimi storici.

Così il 2009 si avvia ad essere un anno da record in molti sensi, alcuni dei quali però gettano un'ombra sul futuro prossimo dell'economia USA: sono ormai 98 le banche fallite nel 2009 tante quante non se ne vedevano dalla saving and loans crisis degli anni Ottanta. Nel complesso l'agenzia federale che assicura i conti bancari americani ha perso 26.6 miliardi di dollari. Scrive il New York Times di oggi che

The pace of bank failures is expected to accelerate in the coming months. There were just 25 bank failures in 2008 and just 10 in the five previous years. But in September alone, regulators took over 11 banks in nine states that were saddled with soured commercial real estate loans, from Corus Bank, a $7 billion construction lender based in Chicago that financed projects across the country, to Brickwell Community Bank in Woodbury, Minn., which had just a single branch and $72.6 million in assets.

E purtroppo anche le previsioni per l'Europa non sono rosee...

Ecco l'aggiornamento al 9 ottobre