O la borsa o l'oro ma non tutti e due

Una delle ragioni alla base della buona performance storica dell'asset allocation secondo mio cuggino potrebbe venire dalla relativa anticorrelazione dell'oro con i rendimenti azionari, almeno quando valutata su scale di tempo medio-lunghe (dai 3 ai 6 anni). Come osserva Buttonwood nel suo blog  David Ranson di Wainwright Economics has looked at the relationship between gold and stockmarkets since 1824. He divides the data into 37 five-year periods. A rise in gold is perceived by Mr Ranson as a sign of inflation which was pretty unarguable during the gold standard era. One might think that stocks, thanks to their links with the real economy, would do well in inflationary times. But that is not what the data show.

• When gold was up more than 20% over five years, the median return from largecap stocks was 2.1%
• When gold was up less than 20%, the median return from stocks was 44.7%
• When gold was unchanged, the return was 52%.
• When gold fell less than 20%, the return was 68.7%.
• When gold fell more than 20%, the median return was 99%.

As you can see, the better for gold, the worse for stocks. Which makes the simultaneous strength of gold and equities today look all the odder.