Da non perdere! Ecco qui (grazie a John Mauldin che segnala il link sulla sua lettera di questa settimana)...
Per non dimenticare che questo è un blog molto serio, molto utile (e talvolta molto profittevole): due link a una lezione che Brad De Long (decisamente un Keynes boy...) sul ciclo economico e sulla dismal science: parte uno e parte due. Secondo De Long il ciclo economico è vivo e vegeto ed è stato un madornale errore
pensare che fosse un concetto obsoleto da gettare nel dimenticatoio...
...four years ago we economists were writing learned papers about the "Great Moderation," about how it looked as though the governing institutions of the world economy had finally learned how to control and moderate if not completely eliminate the business cycle - the epileptic seizures of the economy that leave us with pointlessly high unemployment, pointlessly idle capacity, and pointlessly rusting away machines in spite of there being no fundamental cause for machines to be idle, factories closed, and workers unemployed. In such an epileptic seizure of the economy, workers are unemployed and machines are idle because there isn’t the demand to employ them, and there isn’t the demand to employ because the workers are unemployed and have no incomes.
We have been seeing these epileptic seizures called business cycles fairly regularly since at least 1825.
And we have been claiming that we have it licked fairly regularly since 1825 as well.
British Prime Minister Robert Peel thought we had it licked with his Bank of England reforms in the 1840s.
Yale professor Irving Fisher thought we had it licked in the 1920s - that the founding of the Federal Reserve and the successful winning of the war of drugs in America with the passage of Prohibition had raised living standards, eliminated the business cycle, and carried stock prices to a permanently high plateau.
In the 1960s the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis was so convinced that the business cycle was licked they changed the title of their trademark publication from Business Cycle Digest to Business Conditions Digest. That way they could keep the BCD acronym - but they would no longer be tied to this outmoded idea that there was an inevitable business cycle.
They were all wrong.
But did we learn? No. We did it again.