martedì 10 maggio 2011

Come evitare un nuovo flash crash ?

Dal sito del Financial Times, due video sul flash crash (ringrazio Andrea Pirino per la segnalazione) che prensentano due punti di vista autorevoli ma forse un po' troppo rassicuranti, ricordando a tutti la giornata di studio che dedicheremo all'argomento domani alla Scuola Normale:


Flash crash 'was best possible thing'

May 5 2011  A year on from the precipitous plunge of the Dow Jones that wiped $1,000bn from the US stock market in a matter of minutes, Jeremy Grant, FT Trading Room editor, talks to the FT's Seb Morton-Clark about the causes of the crash and the measures that have been taken to prevent a repeat of events.  (6m 2sec)

Year later trader says 'flash crash' addressed
May 5 2011  Jose Marques, the global head of electronic equity trading at Deutsche Bank tells the FT's Telis Demos that regulators have addressed many deficiencies in market structure since the 'flash crash' on May 6th of last year. But Mr Marques says more controls are needed to stop unforeseen future disruptions before they occur  (6m 22sec)
Su come prevenire instabilità come quelle del 6 maggio 2010 vi segnalo inoltre questo articolo sul New York Times che lancia accuse molto circostanziate sulla S.E.C.. Infine un altro video, dal WSJ, nel quale si osserva correttamente come massive stock slumps such as the "flash crash" can't be prevented and remain a rare, but consistent feature of all stock markets.


"Incidenti" simili al flash crash sono in realtà diventati relativamente frequenti anche in mercati diversi da quello azionario. Secondo il WSJ The U.S. dollar sank 5% against the Japanese yen within minutes on March 16, one of its biggest moves ever. Also that month, cocoa-futures prices dropped 13% in just seconds on the IntercontinentalExchange Inc. before rebounding almost as quickly. In February, the sugar market took a dive of 6% in just one second.
Like the stock market "flash crash," which occurred a year ago on Friday, these big moves are the unintended consequences of an influx of high-frequency and algorithmic traders into markets that aren't equipped to deal with them.(...)
The timing of some of these mini crashes shows the impact of computerized trading. The dollar tumbled against the yen at 5 p.m. in New York on March 16, right as several major banks had shut down their electronic-trading programs as part of a routine handoff to colleagues in Asia, when a barrage of buy orders for the currency stormed the market. With few traders around, the orders, combined with forced buying linked to options, were set loose into a void.
Cocoa's flash crash came at about 10:30 a.m. New York time on March 1, after orders to sell hundreds of cocoa contracts flooded the market. Too few buy orders were there to soak up the sale. Cocoa plunged $450 in one minute, to a low of $3,217 a metric ton. The sell orders were unusually large for the cocoa futures market, which typically handles about 20,000 contracts a day.

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