giovedì 24 giugno 2010

Il cambio yuan/dollaro non è più costante. Conseguenze e previsioni.

Piccola rassegna stampa sul cambio yuan/dollaro:
  • editoriale sul NYTimes di giovedì sul renminbi speriamo che qualcuno a Pechino lo legga attentamente!  The announcement by China’s central bank that it would stop pegging its currency to the dollar could be a watershed moment for the global economy — if China really allows the value of the currency to rise. China’s cheap currency policy has not only built up enormous trade surpluses with the United States and Europe, it has become a drag on the economic recovery of other developing nations whose exports can’t compete.(...) The policy of deliberately undervaluing the renminbi has been central to China’s economic success over the last two decades. But it is no longer tenable even for China’s own economic health.(...)China is now well on the way to economic recovery. Other countries are not so fortunate. Unless China makes a firm commitment to let its currency rise, it will have a hard time managing inflationary pressures and international resentment. 
  • Anche lavoce dedica un'analisi al cambio yuan/dollaro affidandolo a due economisti di Berkeley che hanno esaminato ventisette esempi nei quali un cambio fisso è stato abbandonato e la moneta rivalutata nell’anno successivo contro il dollaro oppure contro gli Sdr (i diritti speciali di prelievo dell’Fmi). Secondo la loro analisi il tasso annuale medio di crescita del Pil rallenta di 1 punto percentuale tra i cinque anni precedenti la rivalutazione e i cinque anni successivi  ma non c’è nessun crollo della crescita, nè della bilancia di parte corrente nè una significativa caduta del tasso di investimento.
  • Il Wall Street Journal si occupa della crescita del mercato forex in Cina e alle sue probabili manipolazioni da parte della Banca Centrale cinese (PBOC): The interbank foreign-exchange market has almost 300 members and has gradually opened up to insurance companies and nonbank finance companies. The market is dominated by domestic banks which, with more extensive branch networks, account for the lion's share of deposits and dominate the banking industry.Still, experienced Chinese-speaking currency traders have become prize commodities among banks. (...) Though small by international standards, the foreign-exchange trading system in Shanghai, where the yuan is traded, moves hundreds of millions of dollars per day. It has proved it can be a profit center for foreign banks, contributing significantly to their 2008 results, although that revenue dropped off in 2009.The extent of China's liberalization of its foreign-exchange regime has been limited by measures geared toward preventing currency speculation and ensuring that no one profits from betting on the yuan. While derivative products were expressly rolled out to help China's exporters and importers cope with currency volatility, Beijing's fear of speculation hasn't made it easy for companies. They must provide extensive documentation to prove that the trade is backed by a real economic need.
    Banks also have strict limits on how they can trade. (...)
    The central bank's most effective means of control has been by setting a daily reference level for the yuan for the start of trade. Given the yuan can only move 0.5% up or down from this level, called the central parity rate, the overall pace of yuan appreciation isn't determined by intraday trade but by how the central parity rate moves from one day to the next.
    In this way the central bank seldom needs to intervene directly in the market, although traders sometimes suspect that when two or more major state-owned banks start trading large volumes in the same direction they are doing so under the instructions of the PBOC. 
  • Sempre dal WSJ un articolo sulle previsioni del cambio yuan/dollaro a fine anno: molte banche lo vedono apprezzarsi di circa il 3% con un ulteriore ribasso del 2% nei sei mesi successivi. Lunedì all'apertura la PBOC aveva fissato la parità di apertura  6.8275 consentendo nel corso della giornata un apprezzamento fino dello 0.46% fino a 6.7958, per poi rimbalzare a 6.8133 martedì e rimanendo pressochè invariato nella giornata di mercoledì per poi riprendere la (leggera) discesa giovedì fino a circa 6.79.

    1 commento:

    giovanni.gambino ha detto...

    è stato interessante l'articolo di riolfi sulle conseguenze in borsa dopo la flessibilità del cambio