martedì 8 dicembre 2009

Qualche approfondimento sul Dubai.

Il Financial Times offre un approfondimento sulla crisi del debito di Dubai così come mantiene ormai da mesi una pagina dedicata agli aggiornamenti sulla crisi islandese (forse più interessante per alcuni sfortunati investitori italiani). Secondo Gary Jenkins, un analista esperto di obbligazioni e di debito sovrano, è abbastanza probabile che nei prossimi 12-24 mesi assisteremo ad altre crisi simili a quella del Dubai.
Secondo l'Economist la crisi dovrebbe tuttavia rimanere limitata ai paesi limitrofi anche se sta conducendo il mercato a una rivalutazione dei rischi legati al debito sovrano. Il quadro non è incoraggiante, soprattutto il debito dei paesi sviluppati sembra essere poco sostenibile, tenendo conto dei problemi demografici e della crescita economica più lenta rispetto ai paesi in via di sviluppo: scrive l'Economist

Dubai is an emerging economy, but, looking forward, the developed world, where official government debt has soared, looks riskier than the faster-growing big emerging economies, whose public debt burden may well fall. In 2007 average government debt in the G20’s big rich economies, at just under 80% of GDP, was double that of big emerging economies. By 2014 the ratio, at 120% of GDP, could be more than three times higher. That alone will challenge old rules of thumb about the relative riskiness of emerging-market debt. But it will not be the only change. The scale of contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees on bank debt, differs hugely between countries, with a far bigger increase in the rich economies at the heart of the crisis. And don’t forget local public finances. Plenty of American states are in a pretty dire situation.
The reassessment of sovereign risk will hover over the world economy for years, but its impact is already being felt. Capital is flooding to the bonds of big emerging economies, squeezing yields and pushing up their currencies. In the rich world the jitters of potential investors are framing today’s fiscal debate, even as output remains depressed and bond yields low. Thanks to the bigger, friendlier new IMF, emerging economies can count on more outside support than they used to. In contrast, some rich countries have fewer options. Euro membership, for instance, has removed the option of quasi-default via inflation for the heavily indebted on Europe’s periphery. And some countries are more determined to deal with this than others: Ireland has raised taxes and cut spending, but Greece has shown scant appetite for austerity.

Seeing through the sandstorm

If sovereign risk is back as a worry, what should indebted governments do? Two things stand out: fiscal transparency and a clear path to medium-term government prudence. The latter does not mean abandoning fiscal stimulus prematurely, but laying out a credible plan for how debt will be brought under control once the recovery strengthens. Greater clarity on the limits of government liabilities and burden-sharing would also help. The euro area, for instance, would be far better off with a clear set of rules governing sovereign crises within its borders. The alternative is clumsy, unpredictable, one-off decisions—in other words, more episodes like Dubai. 

Se vi piacciono le montagne russe ecco un grafico (fornito da Bespoke Investment Group) dell'andamento del mercato azionario del Dubai dal 2004 ad oggi: From the start of 2004 to November 9th, 2005, the DFM General rose a whopping 748% as oil prices shot up along with the global economy. After the DFM General peaked on 11/9/05, however, it declined 57% over the next year and a half. The index staged a 72% snap-back rally from 4/3/07 to 1/15/08, but then it jumped on the global meltdown bandwagon and has declined 71% since then. Currently, the DFM General is down 78% from its peak on November 9th, 2005, but it is still up 83% since the start of 2004. 


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