Non capita molto spesso che il Wall Street Journal analizzi i piani industriali di società italiane: in questo articolo discute quello del Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Vista l'importanza dell'argomento per il paese e per la mia città (Siena) lo riproduco qui integralmente:
Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is very old, but it doesn't quite go back to the days of mythology and heroes. Hard to see, then, how MPS can justify the heroic assumptions made in the 2011-2015 business plan launched last week. Easy, however, to see why they called it "Ambizione 2015" when it foresees 26.5% compound growth in income based on just 6.2% revenue growth and a massive drop in costs. Ambitious is right.
MPS plans to slash its cost-to-income ratio to 44% from 62% last year and raise return on equity to over 15% from a pathetic 4% in 2010. The problem is that Italian economic growth looks meager, and the bank seems to be pinning its hopes on higher interest rates.
Operationally, there is much talk of repositioning and redefinition and, in order to cut costs, rationalization and reorganization leading to more than €400 million of cost reductions in 2015.
MPS also announced a capital raising of as much as €2.47 billion ($3.58 billion). This is designed to pay back the so-called Tremonti Bonds—a €1.9 billion capital fix received from the government in 2009 on which MPS has been paying €160 million a year in interest. Another €471 million from the rights issue will buy back a hybrid 2003 issue that had been counted as core capital by the Bank of Italy but which wouldn't have been so under Basel III.
The process, therefore, adds nothing to MPS's base core-capital numbers other than avoidance of the interest and a potential capital gain on the hybrids buy-back which, it says, may add between 0.16 percentage points and 0.18 percentage points to core Tier 1 capital, which stood at 8.1% at the end of 2010.
In its plan, MPS promises it will pay dividends of more than €2 billion over the five-year business plan, with a payout ratio—the dividend as a percentage of net income—of between 40% and 50%. This will be impossible without the capital hike if the bank is to maintain its capital ratios at a level sufficient to satisfy regulators. Remember that Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi in February urged Italian banks to retain earnings to build their capital base rather than pay dividends. So, clearly, MPS is looking to have the best of both worlds—capital adequacy and happy shareholders.
Assuming consensus net-income forecasts, a 45% dividend payout and 3% annual growth in risk-weighted assets, MPS can reach a 9.2% core Tier 1 ratio by 2015. Consensus forecasts translate into a 26.1% compound annual growth rate for net income, little different from MPS's target. MPS says the Basel III hit to these numbers after adjustments to capital and assets will be 0.20 percentage points, leaving a neat 9% ratio. That's the bull case.
Under a bear case of compound annual net income growth of 15% to 2015, and all other things being equal, the core Tier 1 ratio drops 0.50 percentage points to 8.7%, and to 8.5% after adjusting for Basel III.
Last week, the U.K.'s Independent Banking Commission said British banks' retail operations should carry a core Tier 1 ratio of at least 10%. If that is applied to MPS. It would take €1.25 billion of capital to get the ratio under the bull case to that level. But there are other levers, of course.
One reason MPS is so keen to raise its dividend payout is to please the foundation that owns 46% of its shares. Given the choice, it will favor a high payout.
The other lever in the capital equation is assets, and, in common with most banks, MPS thinks it can control asset growth. This and the whole MPS story is one of execution. It will take fine judgments not to end up with gobbledygook.
Se non sapete cosa vuol dire gobbledygook siete in buona compagnia. Ho messo apposta il link a Wikipedia che discute questa parola in dettaglio. Tra le traduzioni italiane consigliate c'è parlare arabo, burocratese e politichese, ma anche un pittoresco supercazzola. Come se fosse Antani?