giovedì 8 aprile 2010

Viva la follia di stato...

La notizia del giorno è che le obbligazioni governative a 10 anni della Grecia rendono ormai quasi l'8%... Scrive il Wall Street Journal:

The yield premium on Greek 10-year bonds over comparable German bonds, or bunds, rose to a new high of 4.48 percentage points midday Thursday, adding to Greece's borrowing costs. (...)
In a clear sign of bond-market nerves, the cost of insuring Greek sovereign bonds against default rose to $466,000 a year to insure a notional $10 million of Greek debt for five years, an increase of $53,000 from Wednesday, according to CMA DataVision, breaking the previous record of $425,000 in early February.(...) Market watchers say the danger is that Greek banks can no longer find other banks to lend them short-term funds in the interbank money market, in which banks lend to each other to fund normal operations. When supply seizes up, as it did for many banks during the 2008 credit crisis, banks can soon run low on cash.
"The access to money-market funds—both secured and unsecured—is virtually nonexistent for Greek banks, with the exceptions of overnight electronic trade," said Lena Komileva, who heads the economics team covering the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations at Tullett Prebon, a top interdealer money broker. "But you cannot finance an entire economy by rolling over one-day funds."
Greek bankers like Leonidas Fragkiadakis, group treasurer of National Bank of Greece, denied any liquidity issues, but acknowledged that the money market's repurchase volumes have dropped.
"I don't see any major problem with Greek bank liquidity," he said. "But, to be sure, in the repo market we are doing less transactions today and for shorter dates as well as in smaller sizes."(...)
"This is clearly a sign that the Greek authorities have reached the end of the line and need to make a phone call to the IMF," said analysts at BNP Paribas in a morning note to clients.


Carmen Reinhart, autrice di This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly insieme a Kenneth Rogoff, discute nel video qui sotto le (anemiche) prospettive di crescita nelle economie avanzate nei prossimi anni come conseguenza della crisi finanziaria e del debito sovrano accumulato con i bailouts




Kenneth Rogoff commenta invece il debito degli stati U.S.A. in questo articolo sul New York Times di qualche giorno fa: la domanda è....fallirà prima la California o la Grecia? Ai posteri (se ci arrivano...) l'ardua sentenza.

1 commento:

giovanni.gambino ha detto...

anche se gli stati falliranno...ha poco senso. più importante è salirà o non salirà la disoccupazione?
krugman, su uno studio di blanchard, asserisce che la mobilità ue è causa di molti mali. gli usa hanno una mobilità maggiore, per cui riescono ad evitare meglio la disoccupazione