venerdì 19 marzo 2010

Investire in Canada?

Dalle colonne di Forbes, il famoso David Darst raccomanda di investire in Canada: rispetto all'indice S&P500 si ottiene una forte esposizione a materie prime, energia e finanziari:

Sector Weightings of U.S. and Canadian stock markets

Sector Canada S&P/TSX US S&P 500 Sector Canada S&P/TSX S&P 500
Financials 30.80% 14.80% Telecom 4.40% 3.00%
Energy 26.60% 11.70% Info. Tech. 3.70% 19.40%
Materials 19.30% 3.70% Cons. Staples 2.80% 11.10%
Industrials 5.70% 10.60% Utilities 1.70% 3.60%
Cons. Discretionary 4.50% 9.50% Health Care 0.50% 12.60%
. . . Total 100.00% 100.00%
Source: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Investment Strategy, as of Feb. 19, 2010.
Note: The indexes above are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment.

Oltre a essere un paese ricco di risorse naturali, secondo Darst non c'è da temere brutte sorprese dalle banche canadesi, i consumatori non sono pesantemente indebitati  e il mercato è più a buon prezzo di quello USA: 

There are many reasons exposure to Canada looks compelling for the long term. As one of the few developed nations that is a net exporter of energy, Canada possesses large offshore natural gas deposits in the Atlantic and huge oil and gas reserves, primarily in the province of Alberta.(...)
Canada is one of the most important global suppliers of wheat, canola and other grains. In addition to being the world’s largest producer of zinc and uranium, the country is also a major producer of gold, nickel, aluminum and lead. Canada’s timber resources are likewise extensive.
Positive Influences on Equity Prices
With a concentrated banking population (“The Big Five”), conservative lending practices and strong capital ratios, Canada’s financial system has been ranked as the soundest in the world for two years in a row by the World Economic Forum.(,,,)

Thus far, Canada’s self-sustaining economic recovery has generated increased household wealth, stronger business and consumer confidence, net employment growth, a 7.1% unemployment rate (adjusted to U.S. calculation conventions) and less political divisiveness than its southern neighbor. Operating earnings for the TSX index are projected to grow 15% to 20% in 2010.

Relative to the U.S. mortgage market, Canada’s has more government backing and fewer incentives for homeowners to take on mortgage debt. Canadian consumers are less levered than their U.S. counterparts, and debt service obligations represent 8% of disposable income, vs. 13% in the U.S. Having missed the United States’ residential real estate bust in recent quarters, the Canadian housing market is characterized by robust gains in the number of building permits, home starts and price appreciation.
From several perspectives the TSX Canadian equities index appears more attractively valued than the U.S. S&P 500. Canada’s advantages include: a 10% to 15% lower cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, based on Robert Shiller’s method of dividing the current price by the past decade’s average annual earnings; a price-to-book ratio of 1.9 times, which is 21% cheaper than the S&P’s 2.4 times; and a dividend yield of 2.7%, which is one-third more generous than the 2% yield of the S&P 500.

Se la sua tesi vi convince, la buona notizia è che da qualche giorno gli investitori italiani possono utilizzare un ETF armonizzato di Credit Suisse per l'investimento in Canada: il ticker è XMCA.MI. 

Full disclosure: non possiedo XMCA.MI e Credit Suisse non mi ha nè richiesto nè pagato questo piccolo spot pubblicitario!

2 commenti:

giovanni.gambino ha detto...

Nessuno ha mai dubitato sulla Sua indipendenza e condizionamenti.

Stefano Marmi ha detto...

Grazie! La full disclosure voleva essere un po' scherzosa, ma mi sa che non ci sono riuscito!