martedì 31 agosto 2010

Superorsi alla riscossa: l'S&P500 a quota 450?

Albert Edwards di Société Générale capeggia un folto e agguerrito branco di superorsi convinti che nuovi abissi stiano per inghiottire i mercati azionari mondiali. Secondo il Wall Street Journal Edwards ritiene che il fair value dell'indice S&P500 sia ... 450, ovvero circa il 40% dei valori attuali:
His core thesis is that we have only just started paying down debt. With total public and private U.S. obligations near 400% of GDP, and Uncle Sam's off-balance-sheet entitlement liabilities adding 400% more, continuing to borrowing to fund growth looks challenging.
As stimulus slows, and households continue paying down debt instead of spending, the deflationary force will smack corporate earnings. In turn, price/earnings multiples could contract, perhaps drastically as long-term expectations decline.
At about 20 times average 10-year trailing earnings, as calculated by Robert Shiller, the S&P 500 is anything but cheap. Previous valuation bottoms in 1920, 1949 and 1982 saw multiples fall to between five and nine times. An eight-times multiple today would put the index at about 450.
Overly pessimistic? Admittedly, Mr. Edwards has been something of a perma-bear, but his late '90s prediction of a long "Ice Age" for stocks did materialize. Poking fun at critics he titled his latest note: "They laughed. Oh how they laughed." 

Se volete approfondire la tesi del Sig. Edwards potete leggere questo post di zerohedge. Edwards è convinto che non ci sia una bolla nelle obbligazioni governative, anzi: qui sopra potete vedere come estrapola l'andemento degli indici azionari e obbligazionari per i prossimi 12 mesi. Fate un po' voi... ma datemi retta: quando l'S&P500 toccherà quota 450 coprite gli short!

1 commento:

giovanni.gambino ha detto...

bel post, Prof Marmi. Mi sono risollevato lo stomaco, mi era capitata la sventura di leggere il fondo di barro sul WSJ. avevo un gran mal di stomaco...