Albert Edwards di Société Générale capeggia un folto e agguerrito branco di superorsi convinti che nuovi abissi stiano per inghiottire i mercati azionari mondiali. Secondo il Wall Street Journal Edwards ritiene che il fair value dell'indice S&P500 sia ... 450, ovvero circa il 40% dei valori attuali:
His core thesis is that we have only just started paying down debt. With total public and private U.S. obligations near 400% of GDP, and Uncle Sam's off-balance-sheet entitlement liabilities adding 400% more, continuing to borrowing to fund growth looks challenging.
As stimulus slows, and households continue paying down debt instead of spending, the deflationary force will smack corporate earnings. In turn, price/earnings multiples could contract, perhaps drastically as long-term expectations decline.
At about 20 times average 10-year trailing earnings, as calculated by Robert Shiller, the S&P 500 is anything but cheap. Previous valuation bottoms in 1920, 1949 and 1982 saw multiples fall to between five and nine times. An eight-times multiple today would put the index at about 450.
Overly pessimistic? Admittedly, Mr. Edwards has been something of a perma-bear, but his late '90s prediction of a long "Ice Age" for stocks did materialize. Poking fun at critics he titled his latest note: "They laughed. Oh how they laughed."
questo post di zerohedge. Edwards è convinto che non ci sia una bolla nelle obbligazioni governative, anzi: qui sopra potete vedere come estrapola l'andemento degli indici azionari e obbligazionari per i prossimi 12 mesi. Fate un po' voi... ma datemi retta: quando l'S&P500 toccherà quota 450 coprite gli short!