giovedì 26 agosto 2010

Gli inguaribili ottimisti

Malgrado i terribili dati sul mercato immobiliare U.S.A., il downgrade del debito pubblico irlandese da parte di Standard & Poor’s con il conseguente riaccendersi delle ansietà sul debito sovrano europeo (e non solo europeo) ci sono ancora degli ottimisti! Visto che le vacanze volgono alla fine ma siamo ancora in agosto mi è sembrato giusto dare voce anche a loro: 
  • dalle colonne del Wall Street Journal Ross Devol, economista al Milken Institute, elenca alcune ragioni che potrebbero assicurare un futuro all'economia U.S.A. dalle tinte meno fosche di quelle che i dati sull'occupazione e sul mercato immobiliare sembrano adombrare. Secondo Devol There's a point at which pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, scaring businesses away from investing or hiring. The dark tone of today's discourse is at risk of doing just that.The Milken Institute's new study, "From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth" is based on extensive and dispassionate econometric analysis. It concludes that the U.S. economy remains more flexible and resilient—and has more underlying momentum—than is generally acknowledged. In fact, our projections show cause for measured optimism: A return to modest but sustainable growth is close at hand.
    America's businesses are capable of navigating around policy uncertainty and the twists and turns of a volatile global economy. While slow private-sector job growth is to be expected in the early stages of a recovery, the U.S. should add 1.5 million jobs in 2010, 3.1 million in 2011, and 2.6 million in 2012. That will translate into real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2010, 3.7% in 2011, and 3.8% in 2012.
    In this pessimistic climate, this forecast will likely be considered contrarian. So why is our economic outlook more sanguine than the current consensus? For one, robust (albeit moderating) economic growth in developing countries, particularly in Asia, will provide support for U.S. exports.(...)
    Historical context offers further reason to expect a rebound. The peak-to-trough decline in real GDP during this recession was 4.1%, making it the most severe downturn since World War II. But throughout the postwar period, the rate of economic recovery from past recessions has been proportional to the depth of the decline experienced. While this relationship has been somewhat variable, it is well-established. Our projections for GDP growth are above consensus but are substantially below a normal rate of recovery after a recession of this severity.
    The naysayers are right that there's a "new normal" economy, but it's not that the potential long-term growth rate of the U.S. is substantially diminished, as they say. It's that this time, the fulfillment of pent-up demand will be subdued because consumers were living so far above their means during the bubble years. Nevertheless, consumer durables and business investment in equipment will see some previously postponed purchases finally happen—if not this year, certainly by 2011 and 2012.
    Devol poi prosegue nell'indicare una agenda all'amministrazione Obama per favorire la ripresa, primo fra tutti un punto molto dibattuto e controverso, cioè l'estensione dei tagli alle tasse decisi anni fa dal presidente Bush e che dovrebbero cessare con la fine di quest'anno. 
  • Secondo Jim Jubak,  in questi giorni in vacanza in Puglia (!), il mercato azionario U.S.A. è in questo momento completamente assorbito dalle preoccupazioni di breve termine, prima tra tutte la domanda angosciosa: Will the U.S. economy slow significantly in the second half of 2010? Is the current slowdown in growth just a normal slump that happens during many recoveries when companies have finished rebuilding inventories that were drawn down during the recession? Is the decline in home prices near an end? Will companies start hiring by the end of the year?Those are all important questions -- if you're trying to hit quarterly performance numbers or catch the exact bottom in the market. La risposta a queste domande determinerà l'andamento del mercato nel breve-medio periodo mentre they're not so important if you're investing for five years or longer.
    If you're investing in that kind of time frame, what you really want to know is which economies will outperform in the long run. You want to identify the growth industries of the next decade. You want to know where global demand is going to squeeze global supply. You want to know where the global financial power is ebbing and where it is flowing. In questo caso Jubak individua alcune buone possibilità di investimento per le quali vi rinvio all'articolo originale. Forse però non è il caso di precipitarsi a fare acquisti: The best we can do is watch the market indicators for signs that the risk of buying has ebbed to a reasonable level. And that's not yet, I'd say, with the indexes threatening to fall through resistance. We can also pick the stocks with the most long-term potential we can find when that risk level seems acceptable.Of course, that means that when you do buy, you may still wind up taking on more risk than you'd like. There's no getting around the fact that this U.S. economy is indeed uncertain. But there is one advantage to a market that on most days seems volatile and unpredictable: There isn't a lot of competition if you're an investor thinking long term about stocks

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