mercoledì 8 giugno 2011

Pane al pane, vino al vino....

Moody's non è convinta che un piano di rollover del debito sia un'altra cosa rispetto a un default...
Secondo l'agenzia di rating it is hard to say how a rollover could be deemed voluntary.
"If it's voluntary, then it falls outside the default definition," said Bart Oosterveld, head of the sovereign-risk group at Moody's. But he said: "It's hard to imagine in the current circumstances how it could be voluntary."
Speaking to reporters in Paris, Mr. Oosterveld said such a rollover "would likely constitute a credit event."

Ancora dal Wall Street Journal di oggi: 

A Default by Any Other Name: History of Credit Crises Shows Countries' Experiences Vary Widely

Not all government debt defaults are created equal. A default—the failure of a creditor to repay a scheduled interest payment or capital repayment in full and on time—can occur with the consent of creditors or without. History shows defaults can deliver rapid benefits to a borrower or destroy confidence in its economy for years; they can shake the financial system, or not.
The technical definition of default varies among credit-rating agencies, accountants and lawyers. And a default as defined by a rating agency isn't necessarily a "credit event" that would lead to payouts to holders of credit-default swaps, which are a form of insurance against nonpayment of debt.
Although some options now being considered for Greece's bailout package would be defined as a default by the rating agencies, they wouldn't all force bondholders to take explicit losses—or "haircuts"—on their bonds. Many analysts believe, because of Greece's heavy debt burden, that such losses are highly likely in the years to come. But providing Greece gets more bailout money by Aug. 20, when €5.9 billion ($8.6 billion) of government bonds come due, many analysts say that, even if Greece's second bailout leads to a default, it shouldn't generate a financial crisis this year.
Whether a crisis follows default depends on the uncertainty generated in the financial system, the scale of the likely losses, and the financial strength of the holders of the debt. What happens to Greece this year is unlikely to come anywhere close to the panic generated in August 1982 by Mexico's announcement that it couldn't meet its debt obligations. (...)
Rating agency Moody's Investors Service lists 16 sovereign defaults of countries it has rated since 1983, the latest being Jamaica in early 2010. Its list doesn't include defaults by sovereign borrowers that it didn't rate.
Not all defaults end in long-term disaster. Take Uruguay. Contagion from Argentina led its neighbor to complete a distressed debt exchange in 2003. The exchange was announced on April 10; on May 16, Standard & Poor's lowered the rating to a "selective default," and on June 2, it raised the rating to B-minus, when the debt exchange was completed—on the basis that Uruguay's debt was more sustainable than before. The default lasted 17 days.

...Comunque non è solo l'Europa ad avere qualche problema. Ieri negli U.S.A. il governatore della Fed Bernanke
ha sostenuto la tesi che il rallentamento in corso dell'economia sia solo temporaneo con segni di ripresa che dovrebbero essere già tangibili nel secondo semestre del 2011. Il discorso di Bernanke lo trovate qui.
I mercati sono stati così positivamente colpiti da perdere quasi l'1% in un'ora, forse anche perchè alcuni speculavano sull'annuncio di un possibile terzo round di quantitative easing e sono rimasti delusi: 

Financial Times - UK Homepage

Bernanke signals no new round of easing
Ben Bernanke sent a strong signal that the US Federal Reserve is not planning to loosen monetary policy despite weaker economic data
Ma il clima non è dei migliori: ecco qui sotto il risultato di un sondaggio tra il lettori del WSJ

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