domenica 11 luglio 2010

Dow a 1000? Aggiornamento al 9 luglio 2010

Sul supplemento Plus del Sole 24 Ore oggi in edicola Mario Platero, corrispondente da New York, uno dei giornalisti italiani che stimo di più, prende in giro senza mezzi termini i profeti del Dow Jones a 1000, magari fondati sulla teoria delle onde di Elliott. Beh, a quanto pare, la previsione ha veramente fatto rumore negli U.S.A. tanto che se ne occupa sul Wall Street Journal di oggi Jason Zweig.Il profeta di cotanta sventura è il Sig. Pretcher, della newsletter Elliott Wave International. Scrive il WSJ:

Mr. Prechter is a technical analyst who studies the past price performance of the markets for clues to the future. He also believes that investors move in and out of the market on predictable waves of optimism and pessimism. "Because the mania [the bull markets of 1982 to 1999 and 2003 to 2007] was so terrific," he told me this week, "it will be followed by a negative trend in social mood that will lead to a complete retracement." That would put the Dow back to its levels in 1982, below 1000.
"In a deflationary environment, the last thing you want is to own any financial asset," Mr. Prechter added. "If you stay out of stocks, real estate, gold and other commodities, which will all come down together, then you can preserve your purchasing power [in cash] for the next great buying opportunity." He wouldn't tell me what, if anything, he is selling short; he said only that he is "cash laden" with Treasury bills and Swiss money-market instruments.
But wouldn't it be highly unusual for stocks to stagnate for 11 years and then collapse by 90%? "Definitely," Mr. Prechter told me. "It's very rare." But, he points out, it is also very rare for the stock market to fall 50% and end up overvalued, as he says it is now. Still, he says, "I'm taking a big risk" making such a forecast.
Or is he? An extreme forecast doesn't merely grab your attention; ironically, it may strike you as even more convincing than a moderate prediction. A classic psychological experiment at the University of Michigan showed that 54% of people preferred an extreme prediction about stock prices to a more-temperate one. They apparently believed that a forecaster must have high confidence and a solid rationale in order to justify making a dramatic prediction.
 Giustamente a questo punto Jason Zweig si interroga sull'attendibilità di questo tipo di predizioni e, da buon contrarian, fa un'osservazione interessante sulla tempistica delle previsioni "estreme" :
So, while Dow 1000 may or may not be a good forecast, it isn't bad marketing for newsletters that cost $19 a month, as Mr. Prechter's do. Extreme predictions tend to be popular at market turning points: Back in early 2000, a bullish book called "Dow 36,000" hit the best-seller lists—right before the bull market went into the abattoir. Nowadays, you can buy a used copy for one penny online, if you don't mind paying $3.99 for shipping.
...sic transit gloria mundi!

Se il caldo vi rende inclini al pessimismo qui sotto trovate le opinioni di 23 doomsayers (profeti di sventura)
che tratteggiano scenari che potrebbero avvicinarci al target del Sig. Pretcher

Ecco l'aggiornamento al 9 luglio 2010.  

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