For investors, the supercommittee deadline is an unwelcome throwback to the summer, when wrangling over the debt ceiling continued to the eleventh hour and eventually resulted in Standard & Poor's downgrading the U.S.'s credit rating. Then, as now, many investors had been more focused on troubles in Europe, only belatedly realizing the threat being posed to markets, Mr. Doss says.
The biggest unknown, says Erin Browne, director of global macro trading at Citigroup, is how much the continuing wrangling further undermines investor confidence in policy makers.
"The market is concerned about the fact that there's a seeming failure on a global level for policy makers to come to decisions in times of need," Ms. Browne says. "Investors want to see that, at least in times of crisis, Congress can come together."
A loss of faith in political leadership has been a hallmark of the past few months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 16% between July and early October amid worries about the impact of the U.S. downgrade, the stalling economy and growing troubles in Europe. Since then, the gains have been driven by hope for progress in Europe as well as evidence of an improving U.S economy.
Most investors and analysts had been anticipating the so-called supercommittee would achieve what RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli calls "partial success," finding about $1.2 trillion in cuts. But, on Sunday, even that appeared unlikely, leaving open the prospect automatic triggers could kick in to make those budget cuts anyway—largely in federal programs and defense spending.
C'è poi il rischio che la mancanza di un accordo provochi ulteriori tagli del rating del debito americano:
Still, a credit downgrade, especially by Moody's Investors Service or Fitch Ratings, could have severe consequences, investors said. Such a move would lower the U.S. government's average rating, which remains at triple-A even after the S&P downgrade in August. Many funds are legally obliged to hold only triple-A-rated securities in their portfolios, so a further downgrade could force these funds to liquidate their Treasury holdings.
Nel frattempo in Europa riprende quota l'ipotesi di emettere Eurobond: ancora una volta l'ostacolo viene dalla Germania, ma è chiaro a tutti l'inefficacia dell'EFSF e se non si vuole che la BCE monetizzi il debito dei PIIGS non sembrano esserci molte alternative - tranne la dissoluzione della zona euro...Come è noto ci sono tre versioni possibili:
Three Visions of Euro Bonds
- National bond issuance ceases. Euro-zone governments raise new funds in euro bonds, guaranteed jointly by all 17 members. Existing bonds are converted into euro bonds.
- National governments raise funds as euro bonds, guaranteed jointly by the 17 members, up to a certain limit. Beyond that, governments issue national bonds.
- National governments raise funds as euro bonds up to a ceiling. Unlike in the first two options, the bonds are backed by limited guarantees from the 17 euro-zone states.
La terza ipotesi è quella meno indigesta per la Germania e gli altri paesi virtuosi, e anche quella maggiormente compatibile con i trattati europei già in vigore. Basterà?