Se questo celebre strategist statunitense ha ragione conviene avere un po' di Treasury bonds trentennali in portafoglio...
Forbes: Let’s hit first long treasuries. The yield now on the 30-year bond is 3%?
Forbes: The ten-year, 1.6%, 1.8%? Pick a number. When we last talked it was 4.5% on the 30-year, which seemed low at the time and was almost 3% on the ten. How much more is there and how long can it last?
Shilling: I’m suggesting 2% on the long bond and 1% on the ten-year.
Forbes: Time frame?
Shilling: One of the great forecasters said, “You know, you either forecast what’s going to happen or when it’s going to happen, but not both.” I would say over the next year or so, and that’s assuming that this grand disconnect does get closed. If we go from 3% to 2% on the long bond that’s a total return, assuming it takes place over a year so you get a year’s worth of interest. That’s a total return of about 16% and it’s about 25% on a 30-year zero coupon bond. That’s pretty attractive, relative to what I think would happen in stocks, which would be on the negative side.